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# Probability and Statistics  | enregistrements trouvés : 156

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## Post-edited  Freezing and decorated Poisson point processes Zeitouni, Ofer (Auteur de la Conférence) | CIRM (Editeur )

The freezing in the title refers to a property of point processes: let $\left ( X_i \right )_{i\geq 1}$ denote a point process which is locally finite and has finite maximum. For a function f continuous of compact support, define $Z_f=f\left ( X_1 \right )+f\left ( X_2 \right )+....$ We say that freezing occurs if the Laplace transform of $Z_f$ depends on f only through a shift. I will discuss this notion and its equivalence with other properties of the point process. In particular, such freezing occurs for the extremal process in branching random walks and in certain versions of the (discrete) two dimensional GFF.
Joint work with Eliran Subag
The freezing in the title refers to a property of point processes: let $\left ( X_i \right )_{i\geq 1}$ denote a point process which is locally finite and has finite maximum. For a function f continuous of compact support, define $Z_f=f\left ( X_1 \right )+f\left ( X_2 \right )+....$ We say that freezing occurs if the Laplace transform of $Z_f$ depends on f only through a shift. I will discuss this notion and its equivalence with other ...

## Post-edited  An introduction to molecular dynamics Stoltz, Gabriel (Auteur de la Conférence) | CIRM (Editeur )

The aim of this two-hour lecture is to present the mathematical underpinnings of some common numerical approaches to compute average properties as predicted by statistical physics. The first part provides an overview of the most important concepts of statistical physics (in particular thermodynamic ensembles). The aim of the second part is to provide an introduction to the practical computation of averages with respect to the Boltzmann-Gibbs measure using appropriate stochastic dynamics of Langevin type. Rigorous ergodicity results as well as elements on the estimation of numerical errors are provided. The last part is devoted to the computation of transport coefficients such as the mobility or autodiffusion in fluids, relying either on integrated equilibrium correlations à la Green-Kubo, or on the linear response of nonequilibrium dynamics in their steady-states. The aim of this two-hour lecture is to present the mathematical underpinnings of some common numerical approaches to compute average properties as predicted by statistical physics. The first part provides an overview of the most important concepts of statistical physics (in particular thermodynamic ensembles). The aim of the second part is to provide an introduction to the practical computation of averages with respect to the Boltzmann-Gibbs ...

## Post-edited  Variational formulas, Busemann functions, and fluctuation exponents for the corner growth model with exponential weights - Lecture 1 Seppäläinen, Timo (Auteur de la Conférence) | CIRM (Editeur )

Variational formulas for limit shapes of directed last-passage percolation models. Connections of minimizing cocycles of the variational formulas to geodesics, Busemann functions, and stationary percolation.

## Post-edited  Markov Chain Monte Carlo Methods - Part 1 Robert, Christian P. (Auteur de la Conférence) | CIRM (Editeur )

In this short course, we recall the basics of Markov chain Monte Carlo (Gibbs & Metropolis sampelrs) along with the most recent developments like Hamiltonian Monte Carlo, Rao-Blackwellisation, divide & conquer strategies, pseudo-marginal and other noisy versions. We also cover the specific approximate method of ABC that is currently used in many fields to handle complex models in manageable conditions, from the original motivation in population genetics to the several reinterpretations of the approach found in the recent literature. Time allowing, we will also comment on the programming developments like BUGS, STAN and Anglican that stemmed from those specific algorithms. In this short course, we recall the basics of Markov chain Monte Carlo (Gibbs & Metropolis sampelrs) along with the most recent developments like Hamiltonian Monte Carlo, Rao-Blackwellisation, divide & conquer strategies, pseudo-marginal and other noisy versions. We also cover the specific approximate method of ABC that is currently used in many fields to handle complex models in manageable conditions, from the original motivation in population ...

## Post-edited  Palm equivalence and quasi-symmetries of determinantal point processes associated with Hilbert spaces of holomorphic functions Qiu, Yanqi (Auteur de la Conférence) | CIRM (Editeur )

Two important examples of the determinantal point processes associated with the Hilbert spaces of holomorphic functions are the Ginibre point process and the set of zeros of the Gaussian Analytic Functions on the unit disk. In this talk, I will talk such class of determinantal point processes in greater generality. The main topics concerned are the equivalence of the reduced Palm measures and the quasi-invariance of these point processes under certain natural group action of the group of compactly supported diffeomorphisms of the phase space. This talk is based partly on the joint works with Alexander I. Bufetov and partly on a more recent joint work with Alexander I. Bufetov and Shilei Fan. Two important examples of the determinantal point processes associated with the Hilbert spaces of holomorphic functions are the Ginibre point process and the set of zeros of the Gaussian Analytic Functions on the unit disk. In this talk, I will talk such class of determinantal point processes in greater generality. The main topics concerned are the equivalence of the reduced Palm measures and the quasi-invariance of these point processes under ...

## Post-edited  Self-interacting walks and uniform spanning forests Peres, Yuval (Auteur de la Conférence) | CIRM (Editeur )

In the first half of the talk, I will survey results and open problems on transience of self-interacting martingales. In particular, I will describe joint works with S. Popov, P. Sousi, R. Eldan and F. Nazarov on the tradeoff between the ambient dimension and the number of different step distributions needed to obtain a recurrent process. In the second, unrelated, half of the talk, I will present joint work with Tom Hutchcroft, showing that the component structure of the uniform spanning forest in $\mathbb{Z}^d$ changes every dimension for $d > 8$. This sharpens an earlier result of Benjamini, Kesten, Schramm and the speaker (Annals Math 2004), where we established a phase transition every four dimensions. The proofs are based on a the connection to loop-erased random walks. In the first half of the talk, I will survey results and open problems on transience of self-interacting martingales. In particular, I will describe joint works with S. Popov, P. Sousi, R. Eldan and F. Nazarov on the tradeoff between the ambient dimension and the number of different step distributions needed to obtain a recurrent process. In the second, unrelated, half of the talk, I will present joint work with Tom Hutchcroft, showing that the ...

## Post-edited  Asymptotic theory for the sample covariance matrix of a heavy-tailed multivariate time series Mikosch, Thomas (Auteur de la Conférence) | CIRM (Editeur )

We give an asymptotic theory for the eigenvalues of the sample covariance matrix of a multivariate time series. The time series constitutes a linear process across time and between components. The input noise of the linear process has regularly varying tails with index $\alpha \in \left ( 0,4 \right )$; in particular, the time series has infinite fourth moment. We derive the limiting behavior for the largest eigenvalues of the sample covariance matrix and show point process convergence of the normalized eigenvalues. The limiting process has an explicit form involving points of a Poisson process and eigenvalues of a non-negative denite matrix. Based on this convergence we derive limit theory for a host of other continuous functionals of the eigenvalues, including the joint convergence of the largest eigenvalues, the joint convergence of the largest eigenvalue and the trace of the sample covariance matrix, and the ratio of the largest eigenvalue to their sum. This is joint work with Richard A. Davis (Columbia NY) and Oliver Pfaffel (Munich). We give an asymptotic theory for the eigenvalues of the sample covariance matrix of a multivariate time series. The time series constitutes a linear process across time and between components. The input noise of the linear process has regularly varying tails with index $\alpha \in \left ( 0,4 \right )$; in particular, the time series has infinite fourth moment. We derive the limiting behavior for the largest eigenvalues of the sample covariance ...

## Post-edited  On the weak invariance principle and its quenched version under projective criteria Merlevède, Florence (Auteur de la Conférence) | CIRM (Editeur )

In this talk, we shall first review some projective criteria under which the central limit theorem holds. The projective criteria considered will be the Heyde criterion, the Hannan criterion, the Maxwell-Woodroofe condition and the Dedecker-Rio's condition. We shall also investigate under which projective criteria the reinforced versions of the CLT such as the weak invariance principle or the quenched CLT (and its functional form) still hold.

## Post-edited  Non-backtracking spectrum of random graphs: community detection and non-regular Ramanujan graphs Massoulié, Laurent (Auteur de la Conférence) | CIRM (Editeur )

A non-backtracking walk on a graph is a directed path such that no edge is the inverse of its preceding edge. The non-backtracking matrix of a graph is indexed by its directed edges and can be used to count non-backtracking walks of a given length. It has been used recently in the context of community detection and has appeared previously in connection with the Ihara zeta function and in some generalizations of Ramanujan graphs. In this work, we study the largest eigenvalues of the non-backtracking matrix of the Erdos-Renyi random graph and of the Stochastic Block Model in the regime where the number of edges is proportional to the number of vertices. Our results confirm the "spectral redemption" conjecture that community detection can be made on the basis of the leading eigenvectors above the feasibility threshold. A non-backtracking walk on a graph is a directed path such that no edge is the inverse of its preceding edge. The non-backtracking matrix of a graph is indexed by its directed edges and can be used to count non-backtracking walks of a given length. It has been used recently in the context of community detection and has appeared previously in connection with the Ihara zeta function and in some generalizations of Ramanujan graphs. In this work, we ...

## Post-edited  A non exchangeable coalescent arising in phylogenetics Lambert, Amaury (Auteur de la Conférence) | CIRM (Editeur )

A popular line of research in evolutionary biology is to use time-calibrated phylogenies in order to infer the underlying diversification process. This involves the use of stochastic models of ultrametric trees, i.e., trees whose tips lie at the same distance from the root. We recast some well-known models of ultrametric trees (infinite regular trees, exchangeable coalescents, coalescent point processes) in the framework of so-called comb metric spaces and give some applications of coalescent point processes to the phylogeny of bird species.

However, these models of diversification assume that species are exchangeable particles, and this always leads to the same (Yule) tree shape in distribution. Here, we propose a non-exchangeable, individual-based, point mutation model of diversification, where interspecific pairwise competition is only felt from the part of individuals belonging to younger species. As the initial (meta)population size grows to infinity, the properly rescaled dynamics of species lineages converge to a one-parameter family of coalescent trees interpolating between the caterpillar tree and the Kingman coalescent.

Keywords: ultrametric tree, inference, phylogenetic tree, phylogeny, birth-death process, population dynamics, evolution
A popular line of research in evolutionary biology is to use time-calibrated phylogenies in order to infer the underlying diversification process. This involves the use of stochastic models of ultrametric trees, i.e., trees whose tips lie at the same distance from the root. We recast some well-known models of ultrametric trees (infinite regular trees, exchangeable coalescents, coalescent point processes) in the framework of so-called comb metric ...

## Post-edited  Optimal rates for $k$-NN density and mode estimation Kpotufe, Samory (Auteur de la Conférence) | CIRM (Editeur )

We present two related contributions of independent interest: high-probability finite sample rates for $k$-NN density estimation, and practical mode estimators ­ based on $k$-NN ­ which attain minimax-optimal rates under surprisingly general distributional conditions.

$k$-nearest neighbor ($k$-NN) - $k$-NN density rates - mode estimation

62G07

## Post-edited  Statistical inverse problems and geometric "wavelet" construction Kerkyacharian, Gérard (Auteur de la Conférence) | CIRM (Editeur )

In the fist part of the talk, we will look to some statistical inverse problems for which the natural framework is no more an Euclidian one.
In the second part we will try to give the initial construction of (not orthogonal) wavelets -of the 80 - by Frazier, Jawerth,Weiss, before the Yves Meyer ORTHOGONAL wavelets theory.
In the third part we will propose a construction of a geometric wavelet theory. In the Euclidian case, Fourier transform plays a fundamental role. In the geometric situation this role is given to some "Laplacian operator" with some properties.
In the last part we will show that the previous theory could help to revisit the topic of regularity of Gaussian processes, and to give a criterium only based on the regularity of the covariance operator.
In the fist part of the talk, we will look to some statistical inverse problems for which the natural framework is no more an Euclidian one.
In the second part we will try to give the initial construction of (not orthogonal) wavelets -of the 80 - by Frazier, Jawerth,Weiss, before the Yves Meyer ORTHOGONAL wavelets theory.
In the third part we will propose a construction of a geometric wavelet theory. In the Euclidian case, Fourier transform ...

## Post-edited  Introduction aux processus de fragmentation - Partie 1 Haas, Bénédicte (Auteur de la Conférence) | CIRM (Editeur )

Les processus de fragmentation sont des modèles aléatoires pour décrire l'évolution d'objets (particules, masses) sujets à des fragmentations successives au cours du temps. L'étude de tels modèles remonte à Kolmogorov, en 1941, et ils ont depuis fait l'objet de nombreuses recherches. Ceci s'explique à la fois par de multiples motivations (le champs d'applications est vaste : biologie et génétique des populations, formation de planètes, polymérisation, aérosols, industrie minière, informatique, etc.) et par la mise en place de modèles mathématiques riches et liés à d'autres domaines bien développés en Probabilités, comme les marches aléatoires branchantes, les processus de Lévy et les arbres aléatoires. L'objet de ce mini-cours est de présenter les processus de fragmentation auto-similaires, tels qu'introduits par Bertoin au début des années 2000s. Ce sont des processus markoviens, dont la dynamique est caractérisée par une propriété de branchement (différents objets évoluent indépendamment) et une propriété d'auto-similarité (un objet se fragmente à un taux proportionnel à une certaine puissance fixée de sa masse). Nous discuterons la construction de ces processus (qui incluent des modèles avec fragmentations spontanées, plus délicats à construire) et ferons un tour d'horizon de leurs principales propriétés. Les processus de fragmentation sont des modèles aléatoires pour décrire l'évolution d'objets (particules, masses) sujets à des fragmentations successives au cours du temps. L'étude de tels modèles remonte à Kolmogorov, en 1941, et ils ont depuis fait l'objet de nombreuses recherches. Ceci s'explique à la fois par de multiples motivations (le champs d'applications est vaste : biologie et génétique des populations, formation de planètes, ...

## Post-edited  Pathwise regularisation by noise in PDEs Gubinelli, Massimiliano (Auteur de la Conférence) | CIRM (Editeur )

We discuss some examples of the "good" effects of "very bad", "irregular" functions. In particular we will look at non-linear differential (partial or ordinary) equations perturbed by noise. By defining a suitable notion of "irregular" noise we are able to show, in a quantitative way, that the more the noise is irregular the more the properties of the equation are better. Some examples includes: ODE perturbed by additive noise, linear stochastic transport equations and non-linear modulated dispersive PDEs. It is possible to show that the sample paths of Brownian motion or fractional Brownian motion and related processes have almost surely this kind of irregularity. (joint work with R. Catellier and K. Chouk) We discuss some examples of the "good" effects of "very bad", "irregular" functions. In particular we will look at non-linear differential (partial or ordinary) equations perturbed by noise. By defining a suitable notion of "irregular" noise we are able to show, in a quantitative way, that the more the noise is irregular the more the properties of the equation are better. Some examples includes: ODE perturbed by additive noise, linear ...

## Post-edited  Macroscopic fluctuation theory. Lecture 1: Particle systems, scaling limits and large deviations Gabrielli, Davide (Auteur de la Conférence) | CIRM (Editeur )

In this first lecture I will introduce a class of stochastic microscopic models very useful as toy models in non equilibrium statistical mechanics. These are multi-component stochastic particle systems like the exclusion process, the zero range process and the KMP model. I will discuss their scaling limits and the corresponding large deviations principles. Problems of interest are the computation of the current flowing across a system and the understanding of the structure of the stationary non equilibrium states. I will discuss these problems in specific examples and from two different perspectives. The stochastic microscopic and combinatorial point of view and the macroscopic variational approach where the microscopic details of the models are encoded just by the transport coefficients. In this first lecture I will introduce a class of stochastic microscopic models very useful as toy models in non equilibrium statistical mechanics. These are multi-component stochastic particle systems like the exclusion process, the zero range process and the KMP model. I will discuss their scaling limits and the corresponding large deviations principles. Problems of interest are the computation of the current flowing across a system and the ...

## Post-edited  Inhomogeneities and temperature effects in Bose-Einstein condensates de Bouard, Anne (Auteur de la Conférence) | CIRM (Editeur )

We will review in this talk some mathematical results concerning stochastic models used by physicist to describe BEC in the presence of fluctuations (that may arise from inhomogeneities in the confinement parameters), or BEC at finite temperature. The results describe the effect of those fluctuations on the structures - e.g. vortices - which are present in the deterministic model, or the convergence to equilibrium in the models at finite temperature. We will also describe the numerical methods which have been developed for those models in the framework of the ANR project Becasim. These are joint works with Reika Fukuizumi, Arnaud Debussche, and Romain Poncet. We will review in this talk some mathematical results concerning stochastic models used by physicist to describe BEC in the presence of fluctuations (that may arise from inhomogeneities in the confinement parameters), or BEC at finite temperature. The results describe the effect of those fluctuations on the structures - e.g. vortices - which are present in the deterministic model, or the convergence to equilibrium in the models at finite ...

## Post-edited  Integrable probability - Lecture 1 Corwin, Ivan (Auteur de la Conférence) | CIRM (Editeur )

A number of probabilistic systems which can be analyzed in great detail due to certain algebraic structures behind them. These systems include certain directed polymer models, random growth process, interacting particle systems and stochastic PDEs; their analysis yields information on certain universality classes, such as the Kardar-Parisi-Zhang; and these structures include Macdonald processes and quantum integrable systems. We will provide background on this growing area of research and delve into a few of the recent developments.

Kardar-Parisi-Zhang - interacting particle systems - random growth processes - directed polymers - Markov duality - quantum integrable systems - Bethe ansatz - asymmetric simple exclusion process - stochastic partial differential equations
A number of probabilistic systems which can be analyzed in great detail due to certain algebraic structures behind them. These systems include certain directed polymer models, random growth process, interacting particle systems and stochastic PDEs; their analysis yields information on certain universality classes, such as the Kardar-Parisi-Zhang; and these structures include Macdonald processes and quantum integrable systems. We will provide ...

## Post-edited  Autour de la géométrie stochastique : polytopes aléatoires et autres modèles Calka, Pierre (Auteur de la Conférence) | CIRM (Editeur )

La géométrie stochastique est l'étude d'objets issus de la géométrie euclidienne dont le comportement relève du hasard. Si les premiers problèmes de probabilités géométriques ont été posés sous la forme de casse-têtes mathématiques, le domaine s'est considérablement développé depuis une cinquantaine d'années de part ses multiples applications, notamment en sciences expérimentales, et aussi ses liens avec l'analyse d'algorithmes géométriques. L'exposé sera centré sur la description des polytopes aléatoires qui sont construits comme enveloppes convexes d'un ensemble aléatoire de points. On s'intéressera plus particulièrement aux cas d'un nuage de points uniformes dans un corps convexe fixé ou d'un nuage de points gaussiens et on se focalisera sur l'étude asymptotique de grandeurs aléatoires associées, en particulier via des calculs de variances limites. Seront également évoqués d'autres modèles classiques de la géométrie aléatoire tels que la mosaïque de Poisson-Voronoi. La géométrie stochastique est l'étude d'objets issus de la géométrie euclidienne dont le comportement relève du hasard. Si les premiers problèmes de probabilités géométriques ont été posés sous la forme de casse-têtes mathématiques, le domaine s'est considérablement développé depuis une cinquantaine d'années de part ses multiples applications, notamment en sciences expérimentales, et aussi ses liens avec l'analyse d'algorithmes géométriques. ...

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