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# Documents  62F15 | enregistrements trouvés : 8

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## Post-edited  Markov Chain Monte Carlo Methods - Part 1 Robert, Christian P. (Auteur de la Conférence) | CIRM (Editeur )

In this short course, we recall the basics of Markov chain Monte Carlo (Gibbs & Metropolis sampelrs) along with the most recent developments like Hamiltonian Monte Carlo, Rao-Blackwellisation, divide & conquer strategies, pseudo-marginal and other noisy versions. We also cover the specific approximate method of ABC that is currently used in many fields to handle complex models in manageable conditions, from the original motivation in population genetics to the several reinterpretations of the approach found in the recent literature. Time allowing, we will also comment on the programming developments like BUGS, STAN and Anglican that stemmed from those specific algorithms. In this short course, we recall the basics of Markov chain Monte Carlo (Gibbs & Metropolis sampelrs) along with the most recent developments like Hamiltonian Monte Carlo, Rao-Blackwellisation, divide & conquer strategies, pseudo-marginal and other noisy versions. We also cover the specific approximate method of ABC that is currently used in many fields to handle complex models in manageable conditions, from the original motivation in population ...

## Multi angle  Brittleness and robustness of Bayesian inference for complex systems Sullivan, Tim (Auteur de la Conférence) | CIRM (Editeur )

The flexibility of the Bayesian approach to uncertainty, and its notable practical successes, have made it an increasingly popular tool for uncertainty quantification. The scope of application has widened from the finite sample spaces considered by Bayes and Laplace to very high-dimensional systems, or even infinite-dimensional ones such as PDEs. It is natural to ask about the accuracy of Bayesian procedures from several perspectives: e.g., the frequentist questions of well-specification and consistency, or the numerical analysis questions of stability and well-posedness with respect to perturbations of the prior, the likelihood, or the data. This talk will outline positive and negative results (both classical ones from the literature and new ones due to the authors) on the accuracy of Bayesian inference. There will be a particular emphasis on the consequences for high- and infinite-dimensional complex systems. In particular, for such systems, subtle details of geometry and topology play a critical role in determining the accuracy or instability of Bayesian procedures. Joint with with Houman Owhadi and Clint Scovel (Caltech). The flexibility of the Bayesian approach to uncertainty, and its notable practical successes, have made it an increasingly popular tool for uncertainty quantification. The scope of application has widened from the finite sample spaces considered by Bayes and Laplace to very high-dimensional systems, or even infinite-dimensional ones such as PDEs. It is natural to ask about the accuracy of Bayesian procedures from several perspectives: e.g., the ...

## Multi angle  Approximate Bayesian Computation methods for model choice a machine learning point of view - Part 1 Marin, Jean-Michel (Auteur de la Conférence) | CIRM (Editeur )

Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) techniques, also known as likelihood-free methods, have become a standard tool for the analysis of complex models, primarily in population genetics. The development of new ABC methodologies is undergoing a rapid increase in the past years, as shown by multiple publications, conferences and softwares. In this lecture, we introduce some recent advances on ABC techniques, notably for model choice problems.

## Multi angle  Exploring the presence of complex dependence structures in epidemiological and genomic data through flexible clustering Richardson, Sylvia (Auteur de la Conférence) | CIRM (Editeur )

Faced with data containing a large number of inter-related explanatory variables, finding ways to investigate complex multi-factorial effects is an important statistical task. This is particularly relevant for epidemiological study designs where large numbers of covariates are typically collected in an attempt to capture complex interactions between host characteristics and risk factors. A related task, which is of great interest in stratified medicine, is to use multi-omics data to discover subgroups of patients with distinct molecular phenotypes and clinical outcomes, thus providing the potential to target treatments more precisely. Flexible clustering is a natural way to tackle such problems. It can be used in an unsupervised or a semi-supervised manner by adding a link between the clustering structure and outcomes and performing joint modelling. In this case, the clustering structure is used to help predict the outcome. This latter approach, known as profile regression, has been implemented recently using a Bayesian non parametric DP modelling framework, which specifies a joint clustering model for covariates and outcome, with an additional variable selection step to uncover the variables driving the clustering (Papathomas et al, 2012). In this talk, two related issues will be discussed. Firstly, we will focus on categorical covariates, a common situation in epidemiological studies, and examine the relation between: (i) dependence structures highlighted by Bayesian partitioning of the covariate space incorporating variable selection; and (ii) log linear modelling with interaction terms, a traditional approach to model dependence. We will show how the clustering approach can be employed to assist log-linear model determination, a challenging task as the model space becomes quickly very large (Papathomas and Richardson, 2015). Secondly, we will discuss clustering as a tool for integrating information from multiple datasets, with a view to discover useful structure for prediction. In this context several related issues arise. It is clear that each dataset may carry a different amount of information for the predictive task. Methods for learning how to reweight each data type for this task will therefore be presented. In the context of multi-omics datasets, the efficiency of different methods for performing integrative clustering will also be discussed, contrasting joint modelling and stepwise approaches. This will be illustrated by analysis of genomics cancer datasets.
Joint work with Michael Papathomas and Paul Kirk.
Faced with data containing a large number of inter-related explanatory variables, finding ways to investigate complex multi-factorial effects is an important statistical task. This is particularly relevant for epidemiological study designs where large numbers of covariates are typically collected in an attempt to capture complex interactions between host characteristics and risk factors. A related task, which is of great interest in stratified ...

## Multi angle  The expectation-propagation algorithm: a tutorial - Part 1 Barthelmé, Simon (Auteur de la Conférence) | CIRM (Editeur )

The Expectation-Propagation algorithm was introduced by Minka in 2001, and is today still one of the most effective algorithms for approximate inference. It is relatively difficult to implement well but in certain cases it can give results that are almost exact, while being much faster than MCMC. In this course I will review EP and classical applications to Generalised Linear Models and Gaussian Process models. I will also introduce some recent developments, including applications of EP to ABC problems, and discuss how to parallelise EP effectively. The Expectation-Propagation algorithm was introduced by Minka in 2001, and is today still one of the most effective algorithms for approximate inference. It is relatively difficult to implement well but in certain cases it can give results that are almost exact, while being much faster than MCMC. In this course I will review EP and classical applications to Generalised Linear Models and Gaussian Process models. I will also introduce some recent ...

## Multi angle  Variational Bayes methods and algorithms - Part 1 Keribin, Christine (Auteur de la Conférence) | CIRM (Editeur )

Bayesian posterior distributions can be numerically intractable, even by the means of Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods. Bayesian variational methods can then be used to compute directly (and fast) a deterministic approximation of these posterior distributions. In this course, I describe the principles of the variational methods and their application in Bayesian inference, review main theoretical results and discuss their use on examples.

## Multi angle  Bayesian nonparametric inference for multivariate Hawkes processes Rousseau, Judith (Auteur de la Conférence) | CIRM (Editeur )

Les processus de Hawkes forment une classe des processus ponctuels pour lesquels l'intensité s'écrit comme :

$\lambda(t)= \int_{0}^{t^-} h(t-s)dN_s +\nu$

où $N$ représente le processus de Hawkes, et $\nu > 0$. Les processus de Hawkes multivariés ont une intensité similaire sauf que des interractions entre les différentes composantes du processus de Hawkes sont autorisées. Les paramètres de ce modèle sont donc les fonctions d'interractions $h_{k,\ell}, k, \ell \le M$ et les constantes $\nu_\ell, \ell \le M$. Dans ce travail nous étudions une approche bayésienne nonparamétrique pour estimer les fonctions $h_{k,\ell}$ et les constantes $\nu_\ell$. Nous présentons un théorème général caractérisant la vitesse de concentration de la loi a posteriori dans de tels modèles. L'intérêt de cette approche est qu'elle permet la caractérisation de la convergence en norme $L_1$ et demande assez peu d'hypothèses sur la forme de la loi a priori. Une caractérisation de la convergence en norme $L_2$ est aussi considérée. Nous étudierons un exemple de lois a priori adaptées à l'étude des interractions neuronales. Travail en collaboration avec S. Donnet et V. Rivoirard.
Les processus de Hawkes forment une classe des processus ponctuels pour lesquels l'intensité s'écrit comme :

$\lambda(t)= \int_{0}^{t^-} h(t-s)dN_s +\nu$

où $N$ représente le processus de Hawkes, et $\nu > 0$. Les processus de Hawkes multivariés ont une intensité similaire sauf que des interractions entre les différentes composantes du processus de Hawkes sont autorisées. Les paramètres de ce modèle sont donc les fonctions d'interractions ...

## Multi angle  Selective inference in genetics Sabatti, Chiara (Auteur de la Conférence) | CIRM (Editeur )

Geneticists have always been aware that, when looking for signal across the entire genome, one has to be very careful to avoid false discoveries. Contemporary studies often involve a very large number of traits, increasing the challenges of "looking every-where". I will discuss novel approaches that allow an adaptive exploration of the data, while guaranteeing reproducible results.

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