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The aim is to describe the distribution of immune status in an age-structured population on the basis of a within-host sub-model [1] for continuous waning and occasional boosting. Inspired by both Feller's fundamental work [2] and the more recent delay equation formulation of physiologically structured populations [3,4], we derive, for a given force of infection, a linear renewal equation that can be solved by successive approximation, i.e., by generation expansion (with the generation number corresponding to the number of times an individual became infected).
In joint work in progress with Wilfred de Graaf, Peter Teunis and Mirjam Kretzschmar we want to use either the generation expansion or an invariant/stable distribution as the starting point for the efficient computation of coarse statistics.
The aim is to describe the distribution of immune status in an age-structured population on the basis of a within-host sub-model [1] for continuous waning and occasional boosting. Inspired by both Feller's fundamental work [2] and the more recent delay equation formulation of physiologically structured populations [3,4], we derive, for a given force of infection, a linear renewal equation that can be solved by successive approximation, i.e., by ...

92D30 ; 60J75 ; 45D05

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Multi angle  Modèles mathématiques des épidémies
Pardoux, Etienne (Auteur de la Conférence) | CIRM (Editeur )

Il y a cent ans, Sir Ronald Ross tentait de convaincre ses collègues médecins que l'épidémiologie doit être étudiée avec l'aide des mathématiques. Le but de cet exposé est d'expliquer pourquoi les mathématiques sont essentielles pour combattre les épidémies, et de donner quelques indications sur les avancées récentes de la modélisation mathématique en épidémiologie.

00A06 ; 00A08 ; 92C60 ; 92D30

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We consider a simple stochastic model for the spread of a disease caused by two virus strains in a closed homogeneously mixing population of size N. In our model, the spread of each strain is described by the stochastic logistic SIS epidemic process in the absence of the other strain, and we assume that there is perfect cross-immunity between the two virus strains, that is, individuals infected by one strain are temporarily immune to re-infections and infections by the other strain. For the case where one strain has a strictly larger basic reproductive ratio than the other, and the stronger strain on its own is supercritical (that is, its basic reproductive ratio is larger than 1), we derive precise asymptotic results for the distribution of the time when the weaker strain disappears from the population, that is, its extinction time. We further consider what happens when the difference between the two reproductive ratios may tend to 0.
This is joint work with Fabio Lopes.
We consider a simple stochastic model for the spread of a disease caused by two virus strains in a closed homogeneously mixing population of size N. In our model, the spread of each strain is described by the stochastic logistic SIS epidemic process in the absence of the other strain, and we assume that there is perfect cross-immunity between the two virus strains, that is, individuals infected by one strain are temporarily immune to re...

60J27 ; 92D30

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