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Videothèque2  | enregistrements trouvés : 3

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Evolutionary rescue (ER) is the process by which a population, initially destined to extinction due to environmental stress, avoids extinction via adaptive evolution. One of the widely observed pattern of ER (especially in the study of antibiotic resistance) is that it is more likely to occur in mild than in strong stress. This may be due either to purely demographic effects (extinction is faster in strong stress) or to evolutionary effects (adaptation is harder in strong stress). Disentangling the two and predicting the likelihood of ER has important medical or agronomic implications, but also has a strong potential for empirical testing of eco-evolutionary theory, as ER experiments are widespread (at least in microbial systems) and fairly rapid to perform.
Here, I will present results from three recent articles [1-3] where we considered the probability of ER, and the distribution of extinction times, in a classic phenotype-fitness landscape: Fisher’s geometric model (FGM). In our (classic) version of the FGM, fitness is a quadratic function of traits, with an optimum that depends on the environment. This model has received some empirical support with respects to its ability to reproduce or even predict patterns of context dependence in mutation effects on fitness (be it environmental or genetic context).
In our FGM-ER scenario, a population is initially adapted to the current optimum (either a clone or at mutation selection balance). The environment shifts abruptly and the optimum position, plus possibly peak height and width are modified. We follow the evolutionary and demographic response to this change, assuming a density-independent demography (which we approximate by continuous branching process CB process or Feller process).
In spite of its simplicity, the FGM displays fairly distinct behaviors depending on the relative strength of selection and mutation: this yields different approaches to deal with the FGM-ER scenario. I will thus present the different approaches we have used so far: from the strong selection, weak mutation regime to the weak mutation strong selection regime, and discuss possible extensions at the transition between these regimes.
Evolutionary rescue (ER) is the process by which a population, initially destined to extinction due to environmental stress, avoids extinction via adaptive evolution. One of the widely observed pattern of ER (especially in the study of antibiotic resistance) is that it is more likely to occur in mild than in strong stress. This may be due either to purely demographic effects (extinction is faster in strong stress) or to evolutionary effects ...

35K58 ; 35Q92 ; 37N25 ; 60G99

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In recent years, new pandemic threats have become more and more frequent (SARS, bird flu, swine flu, Ebola, MERS, nCoV...) and analyses of data from the early spread more and more common and rapid. Particular interest is usually focused on the estimation of $ R_{0}$ and various methods, essentially based estimates of exponential growth rate and generation time distribution, have been proposed. Other parameters, such as fatality rate, are also of interest. In this talk, various sources of bias arising because observations are made in the early phase of spread will be discussed and also possible remedies proposed.
In recent years, new pandemic threats have become more and more frequent (SARS, bird flu, swine flu, Ebola, MERS, nCoV...) and analyses of data from the early spread more and more common and rapid. Particular interest is usually focused on the estimation of $ R_{0}$ and various methods, essentially based estimates of exponential growth rate and generation time distribution, have been proposed. Other parameters, such as fatality rate, are also of ...

92B05 ; 92B15 ; 62P10

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We introduce and analyze a mathematical model for the regeneration of planarian flatworms. This system of differential equations incorporates dynamics of head and tail cells which express positional control genes that in turn translate into localized signals that guide stem cell differentiation. Orientation and positional information is encoded in the dynamics of a long range wnt-related signaling gradient.
We motivate our model in relation to experimental data and demonstrate how it correctly reproduces cut and graft experiments. In particular, our system improves on previous models by preserving polarity in regeneration, over orders of magnitude in body size during cutting experiments and growth phases. Our model relies on tristability in cell density dynamics, between head, trunk, and tail. In addition, key to polarity preservation in regeneration, our system includes sensitivity of cell differentiation to gradients of wnt-related signals measured relative to the tissue surface. This process is particularly relevant in a small tissue layer close to wounds during their healing, and modeled here in a robust fashion through dynamic boundary conditions.
We introduce and analyze a mathematical model for the regeneration of planarian flatworms. This system of differential equations incorporates dynamics of head and tail cells which express positional control genes that in turn translate into localized signals that guide stem cell differentiation. Orientation and positional information is encoded in the dynamics of a long range wnt-related signaling gradient.
We motivate our model in relation to ...

92C15 ; 35Q92 ; 37N25 ; 35K40

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