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H 2 Estimating parameters in the initial phase of an epidemic

Auteurs : Scalia Tomba, Gianpaolo (Auteur de la Conférence)
CIRM (Editeur )

 Loading the player... bias because of exponential growth estimating R0 bias in RO < biased generation time multiple infector problem counting delayed events problem

Résumé : In recent years, new pandemic threats have become more and more frequent (SARS, bird flu, swine flu, Ebola, MERS, nCoV...) and analyses of data from the early spread more and more common and rapid. Particular interest is usually focused on the estimation of $R_{0}$ and various methods, essentially based estimates of exponential growth rate and generation time distribution, have been proposed. Other parameters, such as fatality rate, are also of interest. In this talk, various sources of bias arising because observations are made in the early phase of spread will be discussed and also possible remedies proposed.

Keywords : Mathematical models, infectious diseases, statistics

Codes MSC :
62P10 - Applications of statistics to biology and medical sciences
92B05 - General biology and biomathematics