We consider a population model in which the season alternates between winter and summer, and individuals can acquire mutations either that are advantageous in the summer and disadvantageous in the winter, or vice versa. Also, we assume that individuals in the population can either be active or dormant, and that individuals can move between these two states. Dormant individuals do not reproduce but do not experience selective pressures. We show that, under certain conditions, over time we see two waves of adaptation. Some individuals repeatedly acquire mutations that are beneficial in the summer, while others repeatedly acquire mutations that are beneficial in the winter. Individuals can survive the season during which they are less fit by entering a dormant state. This result suggests that, for populations in fluctuating environments, dormancy may have the potential to induce speciation. This is joint work with Fernando Cordero and Adrian Gonzalez Casanova.[-]

Les processus de fragmentation sont des modèles aléatoires pour décrire l'évolution d'objets (particules, masses) sujets à des fragmentations successives au cours du temps. L'étude de tels modèles remonte à Kolmogorov, en 1941, et ils ont depuis fait l'objet de nombreuses recherches. Ceci s'explique à la fois par de multiples motivations (le champs d'applications est vaste : biologie et génétique des populations, formation de planètes, polymérisation, aérosols, industrie minière, informatique, etc.) et par la mise en place de modèles mathématiques riches et liés à d'autres domaines bien développés en Probabilités, comme les marches aléatoires branchantes, les processus de Lévy et les arbres aléatoires. L'objet de ce mini-cours est de présenter les processus de fragmentation auto-similaires, tels qu'introduits par Bertoin au début des années 2000s. Ce sont des processus markoviens, dont la dynamique est caractérisée par une propriété de branchement (différents objets évoluent indépendamment) et une propriété d'auto-similarité (un objet se fragmente à un taux proportionnel à une certaine puissance fixée de sa masse). Nous discuterons la construction de ces processus (qui incluent des modèles avec fragmentations spontanées, plus délicats à construire) et ferons un tour d'horizon de leurs principales propriétés.[-]

Several operations of combinatorial surgery can be used to relate maps of a given genus g to maps of genus g' is smaller than g. One of them is the Tutte/Lehman-Walsh decomposition, but more advanced constructions exist in the combinatorial toolbox, based on the Marcus-Schaeffer/ Miermont or the trisection bijections.
At the asymptotic level, these constructions lead to surprising relations between the enumeration of maps of genus g, and the genus 0 Brownian map. I will talk about some fascinating identities and (open) problems resulting from these connections, related to Voronoi diagrams, 'W-functionals', and properties of the ISE measure. Although the motivation comes from 'higher genus', these questions deal with the usual Brownian map as everyone likes it.
This is not very new material, and a (mostly French) part of the audience may have heard these stories one million times. But still I hope it will be interesting to advertise them here. In particular, I do not know if recent 'Liouville-based' approaches have anything to say about all this.[-]

We consider a stochastic model for the evolution of a discrete population structured by a trait taking finitely many values on a grid of [0, 1], with mutation and selection. We study of the dynamics of the population in logarithm size and time scales, under a large population assumption. In the first part of the talk, individual mutations are rare but the global mutation rate tends to infinity. Then negligible sub-populations may have a strong contribution to evolution. The traits can also be horizontally transferred, leading to a trade-off between natural evolution to higher birth rates and transfer which drives the population towards lower birth rates. We prove that the stochastic discrete exponent process converges to a piecewise affine continuous function, which can be described along successive phases determined by dominant traits. In the second part of the talk, the individual mutations are small but not rare, we don't have any transfer and we assume the grid mesh for the trait values becoming smaller and smaller. We establish that under our rescaling, the stochastic discrete exponent process converges to the viscosity solution of a Hamilton-Jacobi equation, filling the gap between individual-based evolutionary models and Hamilton-Jacobi equations.
Joint works with N. Champagnat and V.C. Tran, and S. Mirrahimi for the second part.[-]

A popular line of research in evolutionary biology is to use time-calibrated phylogenies in order to infer the underlying diversification process. This involves the use of stochastic models of ultrametric trees, i.e., trees whose tips lie at the same distance from the root. We recast some well-known models of ultrametric trees (infinite regular trees, exchangeable coalescents, coalescent point processes) in the framework of so-called comb metric spaces and give some applications of coalescent point processes to the phylogeny of bird species.

However, these models of diversification assume that species are exchangeable particles, and this always leads to the same (Yule) tree shape in distribution. Here, we propose a non-exchangeable, individual-based, point mutation model of diversification, where interspecific pairwise competition is only felt from the part of individuals belonging to younger species. As the initial (meta)population size grows to infinity, the properly rescaled dynamics of species lineages converge to a one-parameter family of coalescent trees interpolating between the caterpillar tree and the Kingman coalescent.

Keywords: ultrametric tree, inference, phylogenetic tree, phylogeny, birth-death process, population dynamics, evolution[-]

Les processus de fragmentation sont des modèles aléatoires pour décrire l'évolution d'objets (particules, masses) sujets à des fragmentations successives au cours du temps. L'étude de tels modèles remonte à Kolmogorov, en 1941, et ils ont depuis fait l'objet de nombreuses recherches. Ceci s'explique à la fois par de multiples motivations (le champs d'applications est vaste : biologie et génétique des populations, formation de planètes, polymérisation, aérosols, industrie minière, informatique, etc.) et par la mise en place de modèles mathématiques riches et liés à d'autres domaines bien développés en Probabilités, comme les marches aléatoires branchantes, les processus de Lévy et les arbres aléatoires. L'objet de ce mini-cours est de présenter les processus de fragmentation auto-similaires, tels qu'introduits par Bertoin au début des années 2000s. Ce sont des processus markoviens, dont la dynamique est caractérisée par une propriété de branchement (différents objets évoluent indépendamment) et une propriété d'auto-similarité (un objet se fragmente à un taux proportionnel à une certaine puissance fixée de sa masse). Nous discuterons la construction de ces processus (qui incluent des modèles avec fragmentations spontanées, plus délicats à construire) et ferons un tour d'horizon de leurs principales propriétés.[-]

Consider a diploid population living in one spatial dimension. Suppose a particular gene appears in two forms (alleles) A and a, and that individuals carrying AA have a higher fitness than aa individuals, while Aa individuals have a lower fitness than both AA and aa individuals. We can prove that on a suitable timescale, the genealogy of a sample of A alleles taken from near the wavefront converges to a Kingman coalescent as the population density goes to infinity. Joint work with Alison Etheridge.[-]