English
Scaling of scoring rules
Virtualconference
Auteurs : Wallin, Jonas (Auteur de la Conférence)
CIRM (Editeur )
60G25 - Prediction theory, See also {62M20}
62C25 - Compound decision problems
62M30 - Statistics of spatial processes
Ressources complémentaires :
https://www.cirm-math.fr/RepOrga/2146/Slides/Wallin.pdf
CIRM (Editeur )
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Résumé :
Averages of proper scoring rules are often used to rank probabilistic forecasts. In many cases, the individual observations and their predictive distributions in these averages have variable scale (variance). I will show that some of the most popular proper scoring rules, such as the continuous ranked probability score (CRPS), up-weight observations with large uncertainty which can lead to unintuitive rankings. We have developed a new scoring rule, scaled CRPS (SCRPS), this new proper scoring rule is locally scale invariant and therefore works in the case of varying uncertainty.
I will demonstrate this how this affects model selection through parameter estimation in spatial statitics.
Keywords : Proper soring rules; model selection; prediction
Codes MSC : I will demonstrate this how this affects model selection through parameter estimation in spatial statitics.
Keywords : Proper soring rules; model selection; prediction
60G25 - Prediction theory, See also {62M20}
62C25 - Compound decision problems
62M30 - Statistics of spatial processes
Ressources complémentaires :
https://www.cirm-math.fr/RepOrga/2146/Slides/Wallin.pdf
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Informations sur la Vidéo
Réalisateur : Hennenfent, GuillaumeLangue : Anglais Date de publication : 15/06/2020 Date de captation : 02/06/2020 Sous collection : Research talks arXiv category : Machine Learning ; Statistics Theory Domaine : Probability & Statistics Format : MP4 (.mp4) - HD Durée : 00:35:09 Audience : Researchers Download : https://videos.cirm-math.fr/2020-06-02_Wallin.mp4 
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Informations sur la Rencontre
Nom de la rencontre : Mathematical Methods of Modern Statistics 2 / Méthodes mathématiques en statistiques modernes 2Organisateurs de la rencontre : Bogdan, Malgorzata ; Graczyk, Piotr ; Panloup, Fabien ; Proïa, Frédéric ; Roquain, Etienne Dates : 15/06/2020 - 19/06/2020 Année de la rencontre : 2020 URL Congrès : https://www.cirm-math.com/cirm-virtual-e...
Données de citation
DOI : 10.24350/CIRM.V.19644103Citer cette vidéo: Wallin, Jonas (2020). Scaling of scoring rules. CIRM. Audiovisual resource. doi:10.24350/CIRM.V.19644103 URI : http://dx.doi.org/10.24350/CIRM.V.19644103 |
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Bibliographie
- BOLIN, David et WALLIN, Jonas. Scale invariant proper scoring rules Scale dependence: Why the average CRPS often is inappropriate for ranking probabilistic forecasts. arXiv preprint arXiv:1912.05642, 2019. - https://arxiv.org/abs/1912.05642
