This talk is based on a work jointly with Timothy Budd (Copenhagen), Nicolas Curien (Orsay) and Igor Kortchemski (Ecole Polytechnique).
Consider a self-similar Markov process $X$ on $[0,\infty)$ which converges at infinity a.s. We interpret $X(t)$ as the size of a typical cell at time $t$, and each negative jump as a birth event. More precisely, if ${\Delta}X(s) = -y < 0$, then $s$ is the birth at time of a daughter cell with size $y$ which then evolves independently and according to the same dynamics. In turn, daughter cells give birth to granddaughter cells each time they make a negative jump, and so on.
The genealogical structure of the cell population can be described in terms of a branching random walk, and this gives rise to remarkable martingales. We analyze traces of these mar- tingales in physical time, and point at some applications for self-similar growth-fragmentation processes and for planar random maps.[-]

Consider random conductances that allow long range jumps. In particular we consider conductances $C_{xy} = w_{xy}|x − y|^{−d−\alpha}$ for distinct $x, y \in Z^d$ and $0 < \alpha < 2$, where $\lbrace w_{xy} = w_{yx} : x, y \in Z^d\rbrace$ are non-negative independent random variables with mean 1. We prove that under some moment conditions for $w$, suitably rescaled Markov chains among the random conductances converge to a rotationally symmetric $\alpha$-stable process almost surely w.r.t. the randomness of the environments. The proof is a combination of analytic and probabilistic methods based on the recently established de Giorgi-Nash-Moser theory for processes with long range jumps. If time permits, we also discuss quenched heat kernel estimates as well. This is a joint work with Xin Chen (Shanghai) and Jian Wang (Fuzhou).[-]

Statistical modelling of complex dependencies in extreme events requires meaningful sparsity structures in multivariate extremes. In this context two perspectives on conditional independence and graphical models have recently emerged: One that focuses on threshold exceedances and multivariate pareto distributions, and another that focuses on max-linear models and directed acyclic graphs. What connects these notions is the exponent measure that lies at the heart of each approach. In this work we develop a notion of conditional independence defined directly on the exponent measure (and even more generally on measures that explode at the origin) that extends recent work of Engelke and Hitz (2019), who had been confined to homogeneous measures with density. We prove easier checkable equivalent conditions to verify this new conditional independence in terms of a reduction to simple test classes, probability kernels and density factorizations. This provides a pathsway to graphical modelling among general multivariate (max-)infinitely distributions. Structural max-linear models turn out to form a Bayesian network with respect to our new form of conditional independence.[-]